Down or out: The future of fossil fuels at COP28

Asking the CEO of one of the world’s largest oil companies to broker a global agreement to phase out fossil fuels was always going to be a long shot, but as the scheduled final hours of the COP28 summit tick down, negotiations are on the verge of breaking down.

The controversial figure at the centre of negotiations is COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, also head of the United Arab Emirates state-owned oil company ADNOC. Al Jaber contends his dual roles are, in fact, a benefit, arguing they allow him to engage with the fossil fuel industry as a partner in addressing climate change. So far, however, Al Jaber has appeared an asset for the fossil fuel industry, with a Presidential draft text released overnight that substantially waters down the ambition of earlier drafts.

If a full fossil fuel phase out is agreed at COP28, it would be the biggest climate change breakthrough since the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, and a significant step forward in the global race to net zero emissions. It would send a powerful message to governments, investors, and citizens the world over, making new fossil fuel investments riskier, while encouraging more clean energy technology. And it would be an important win for global cohesion in an increasingly fractured world.

Yet the road has been anything but smooth. Briefing notes allegedly prepared for Al Jaber's meetings with world leaders were leaked ahead of the conference. The notes contained talking points appearing to support fossil fuel deals for ADNOC.

Al Jaber has categorically denied seeing or using these notes. But days later, he fanned the flames by saying there was “no science” to support the notion that a phase out of fossil fuels was going to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius – the target agreed in the Paris Agreement. His remarks, which he subsequently said had been misinterpreted, appeared to contradict the advice of the International Energy Agency, which says fossil fuels must be urgently phased out to keep the 1.5 degrees target alive.

Early negotiation draft texts tracking the world’s progress towards the Paris targets revealed a range of options for countries to accelerate climate action, ranging from a full fossil fuel phase out, a slower phase down which was not in line with the 1.5oC target, to not addressing fossil fuel use at all.

As the summit reaches the end game, the COP President has considerable sway in shaping a compromise. Regrettably, draft text released by Al Jaber overnight, contained no mention of a fossil fuel phase out or phase down, instead suggesting the world reduce “both consumption and production of fossil fuels”. This draft text has been rightly dismissed as unacceptable, including by the Alliance for Small Island States, who declared “we will not sign our own death warrant”, and seemingly by the Umbrella Group, chaired by Australia.

Australia has an important role to play in trying to salvage these talks from failure. As one of the world’s major fossil fuel exporters, calls to increase ambition have heightened pressure on others, including petrostates such as the UAE, to follow suit. It sends a message that rich countries can no longer shirk difficult actions on climate change and adds to Australia’s credibility among Pacific Island countries.

Australia’s Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen indicated support for the phase out on Sunday, noting “if we are to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius alive, fossil fuels have no ongoing role to play in our energy systems”. In recent days, Australia also announced it would sign onto the Glasgow statement, committing to end government financing of international oil, gas and coal projects. Bowen is in good company, with at least 100 countries indicating support for a fossil fuel phase out.

Other major fossil fuel exporters remain unmoved. Recent leaked letters suggest that the OPEC oil cartel is lining up to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy, i.e. fossil fuels, rather than emissions”. India and Russia are also opposed to language on a fossil fuel phase out.

Bridging the divide between these positions will not be easy. Certainly not for Al Jaber, who staked his credibility on the value of bringing fossil fuel producers to the table. The real test, however, is not getting them to the table, but getting them to compromise. If the conference outcome fails to incorporate “phase out” language, COP28 will be remembered as a failure, with Al-Jaber’s arguments about his dual roles exposed as spin.

COPs are routinely derided as talk fests. They often are. But the leaked OPEC letters and record attendance by oil, coal and gas lobbyists show how seriously the fossil fuel industry is taking the conference. For them, the long-term survival of their industry hangs in the balance. For the world, it is a critical opportunity to safeguard a liveable future.

Low as expectations may be, Al Jaber – the most unlikely of climate brokers – is now one of the few people who can salvage this conference – and with it, his reputation. The window is closing.

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